WHY THE DUCKS WILL WIN
Because a 3rd middle of the night game in a row would be brutal and I want, nay, need that 5pm/8pm slot!
But seriously, I am hoping that the team learned from Arizona State and is going to use this as a measure of how to overcome adversity. Last year was a spiral so I hope this year we beat Cal and are able to move forward.
According to QuackMinute the sideline didn’t have the same excitement it had the 3 previous games and I think we could all a tell something was off from the get go – so hopefully they turn that around and have addressed the penalty situation. I think this team has what it takes to put the AZ state L in the past and refocus to get a nice win against the bears.
Because Willie and company will want to get rid of the awful taste of losing to Todd Graham. Cal’s offense isn’t as dynamic as it was under Sonny Dykes, and an energized Ducks team at home will triumph.
Oregon bounces back from a rather disappointing loss last week and the team feels like they need to prove they are not the same team as last year. The team does not feel the first three weeks were an aberration and that they are, in fact, on the way “back”. Herbz doesn’t look so troubled and is back to the Herbz we have come to expect. Oregon cuts down on the penalties, the line opens some holes and Royce gets his 15o and 3 TDs.
It’s Cal week, heck yeah. A matchup between Bob Marley posters, and 4 foot bongs. My favorite game of the year, it’s basically the dueling pointing Spider-Man meme. Other than Trump winning the election last November, Cal beating Oregon was the biggest upset of 2016. Eventually the law of averages catch up, so yeah, mathematically, Oregon has to win.
UC Berkeley’s pass defense is ranked in the 120’s, that’s not good. It’s Hokeian, to be honest. After a choppy performance in Tempe, expect UC Eugene and Justin Herbert to have a nice day through the air, opening up the run game in the second half for Royce and company.
Because Cal’s quarterback, Ross Bowers, is a turnover machine. He’s thrown multiple interceptions in three separate games, including four last week vs. USC. He’s not very mobile and over the last two games his completion percentage is under 50%. Add in Cal’s uneven rushing attack, and there’s a lot to be optimistic about for Oregon’s defense
Oregon’s offense is still very good, despite the issues with penalties and negative plays. The Ducks are still 7th in the FBS in total offense, and #1 in scoring offense. They’ve put up 29 touchdowns in 4 games and are scoring 50.8 PPG. Royce Freeman is still averaging 5.5 yards per carry and already has 10 touchdowns on the year. Justin Herbert has thrown for almost 1200 yards and thrown 9 touchdown versus just 2 picks. Cal’s defense is giving up 24 points per game and the only really *good* team they’ve played has been USC, who they let score 30 in a game they probably should have won. Cal is particularly vulnerable through the air, where they have been giving up 309 yards per game. Ross Bowers is prone to throwing interceptions, which Oregon has shown itself to be fairly decent about snaring. I’d bet on this game getting Oregon back to their winning ways, but I just need to double check that @WildKingdumb isn’t making any vacation plans this weekend.
WHY THE DUCKS WILL LOSE
If they keep being their own worst enemy with the avoidable penalties and can’t get the offense going. It’s weird to be worried about this Duck Offense but versus AZ D was definitely the brighter side of the team. Cal is also 3-1 and coming off their first Pac 12 loss versus USC. They could be trying to prove the same thing we are. Again, a game of who wants it more.
Once again, Pac12AfterDark. Also, maybe this Ducks team isn’t as good as we thought it would be. If they’re unable to get run game going against Justin Wilcox’s defense we could be in for another painful night. Cal has some nice wins under their belt, and they gave USC a game. If we come out flat like we did against Arizona State we won’t win.
Because football and sports in general are cruel. And your favorite team is one based within the boundary that comprises the State of Oregon and we are jinxed here. Harry Glickman sold the State’s collective sports soul to the devil in 1977 and apparently there are no “take-backs” from Lucifer. Anybody who negotiates contracts knows you always want a claw back provision. Can someone point me to the termination section of the sales agreement?
At this point, expect the penalties to come down like an avalanche. It just is what it is at this point. So fingers crossed there aren’t more fumbled punt returns. If Oregon plays smart, they win. If not, don’t sleep on Cal. While the Bears lack talent, they are well coached along the lines – hello Greatwood and Azz – and that’s a great equalizer.
If the ASU game is the new normal and not an aberration, then Oregon’s offense will be sloppy and ineffective for long stretches. That lets the Bears hang around, even if their offense never really gets anything going. Cal beat North Carolina on the road despite trailing in the 4th quarter, and pitched a second half shutout vs. Ole Miss to overcome a nine-point halftime deficit. The exception here is USC, who scored 17 points in 3:09early in the 4th quarter to turn a 13-13 nail-biter into a comfortable 30-20 win at Cal. Oregon isn’t good enough (yet) to let double-digit underdogs hang around and still expect to win going away (or even win at all, as we saw last week).
Oregon, well they may not be very good yet. They gave up almost 500 yards of total offense to Arizona State, and 142 yards rushing to a team that was averaging 2.7 or so yards per carry coming into the game. That number is.. well it’s concerning to say the least. They were 1-11 on third down matching up with one of the worst third down defensive teams in the country. They were penalized 14 times for 99 yards, and a couple (well most) of them on offense killed drives. Cal is a better? team than Arizona State. Cal is averaging 428 yards per game, which is less than Oregon’s 557 but still respectable. They allow less points than Oregon does per game as well. The spread is 15 but the ASU spread was also 15 and we saw what happened there. This game is at 7:30 in Autzen in prime Pac-12 After Dark territory. All of these things are concerning, the main concern really though is if Dan is going on vacation this weekend though. No? Oregon has a chance.
Ducks 35, Cal 24
Oregon wins, 42-28.
Oregon 45, Cal 44
UC Eugene Apathetic Liberals 44 – UC Berkeley Fighting Antifas 27.
For gambling purposes, I love the Golden Bears (+15) and the under (68). Ducks win 34-27 thanks to a late Cal turnover
I am not at all confident in Oregon’s ability to finish or take control of games at this point